Monday, July 15, 2013

Defending Dwight's Departure (Moolah Edition)


We’ve seen the tweet, witnessed the backlash, and heard the criticism.  We’ve sat through countless debates on SportsCenter and listened to the talking heads argue about the merits and faults in Dwight Howard’s decision to sign with the Houston Rockets over the Los Angeles Lakers.  Yet they’ve gotten one essential aspect of this argument completely wrong. 

Houston comes out on top in almost all of the purely basketball categories: the Rockets boast some of the biggest young stars in the league from James Harden to New York’s ex-sweetheart Jeremy Lin.  Who do the Lakers have?  An aging Kobe Bryant who is rehabbing from an Achilles injury and an expensive center in Pau Gasol whom they would’ve most likely moved had they landed Howard.  In terms of coaching, Houston also has Hollywood beat: Rockets’ Kevin McHale was a legendary big man for Larry Bird’s Celtics who can help refine Howard’s offensive game. Lakers’ Mike D’Antoni drove Amar’e Stoudemire’s knees into the ground and alienated Howard during his only season in L.A.

But surely Dwight made a mistake if he passed up a five year, $118 million contract in favor of a four year, $87.6 million one, right?

Objectively, yes.  The Lakers can offer Dwight a maximum annual increase in pay of 7.5% compared to the Rockets’ 4.5% maximum annual increase.  However, Howard would not be getting all of the $118 million had he signed with the Lakers, nor is he getting all of the $87.6 million in signing with the Rockets.  This is where the analysts have skewed the facts and made the laymen viewer believe that Howard will be wealthier if he stays in L.A.

The first question is how do you define one’s wealth.  According to most, it’s the sum of an individual’s physical assets (houses, cars, boats, etc.) and monetary assets (investments, money in a savings account, etc.).  You would never include the money that he or she sends to the government in the form of taxes because that is money that the individual forced to give up and is therefore unable to spend. 

Here is where the raw contract numbers are misleading.  Howard’s gross salary in L.A. is much higher than Howard’s gross salary in Houston; however, California’s burdensome 13.3% state income tax will take away a large chunk of Howard’s $118 million over the course of five years.  What makes Texas so appealing financially is that there is no state income tax.  However, due to the unique way in which athletes are taxed, this does not mean that Howard will be making 13.3% more money playing in Houston.

This confusing set of rules is referred to as the “Jock Tax,” and Forbes’ Tony Nitti describes it simply and eloquently in his own piece about Howard’s decision:

           “In the U.S., the taxation of professional athletes is based on ‘duty days;’ basically, the income you earn is apportioned to each state based on the number of days you compete or train within the state, and is then taxed in that state according to its tax rates. So even if an athlete resides in a state with no income tax, some of his income will be allocated to states with an income tax and taxed accordingly. But as you’ll see below, the savings from calling a state like Texas your home can still be substantial.

If Howard re-signs with the Lakers and relocates to California, as a resident of the state he will be subject to a 13.3% on all of his income. Any income allocated outside the state and taxed in another jurisdiction– for example, when the Lakers play the Phoenix Suns – will generate a credit Howard can use against his California income tax. But because California’s rate will always be higher than the other state, Howard will still pay an effective rate of 13.3% on his income.”

Basically, if Howard finishes his contract with L.A. and earns the full $118 million, all $118 million of it would be taxed and he would lose roughly $15.7 million (13.3% of $118).  When we turn our attention down South, we realize that over half of Howard’s $87.6 million would be tax-free: the government would touch none of the money that Howard makes in the 41 home games Howard plays each season, nor would they see a cent of the money he earns in the Rockets’ away games against the Dallas Mavericks (x2), San Antonio Spurs (x2), Miami Heat, and Orlando Magic, all of which play within the borders of a no-income tax state. 

As a result, Howard will only play 33 games a season in income-taxable states per season.  If we project this across the length of his contract we find that Howard will play a total of 132 games in income taxable states, which accounts for approximately 40% of his total income or $1.7 million. 

But we won’t stop here.  The Lakers’ $118 million contract included a player option for the fifth season, meaning that Dwight Howard could opt out of the fifth year and let the market determine his value in free agency. At the end of the hypothetical fourth year, Howard would be 31 years old, nearing the end of his prime, but a great defensive stopper in a league deprived of quality big men.  He would more than likely fetch another max contract, and why would he wait one more year to stay with his current contract with the risk of injury and job security?  To offer some perspective, at 33 years old, Shaq signed a $100 million max contract with the Heat.  Granted, Shaq had three NBA Championships to his credit, but because of the dearth at the center position, a physical specimen as gifted as Howard won’t have any trouble finding another max deal.  Regardless, Howard will play somewhere, which is why the fifth year of the L.A. deal is so misleading.

So after we factor out the final year of Howard’s contract in L.A., let’s juxtapose the two four-year deals:

Los Angeles Lakers: four years, $91 million (minus $15.7 million to state income tax) = $75.3 million

Houston Rockets: four years, $87.6 million (minus $1.4 million to state income tax) = $86.2 million

            After doing some math, we see that the reason why Dwight Howard left Hollywood may not have been to any fault of Kobe Bryant or Mike D’Antoni, but of Uncle Sam.


#DJLR

Friday, June 21, 2013

How Ray Allen Saved the King


           It would’ve been all over the news. The morning headlines would’ve been just the beginning.  “THE KING DETHRONED” over a picture of James grimacing without his headband. “LEBRON’S LATE-GAME TURNOVERS COST HEAT CHAMPIONSHIP” beneath a snapshot of James lobbing a ball up to nobody before falling out of bounds.

Had Ray Allen missed that shot with five second left in Game 6 we wouldn’t have been able to turn on ESPN without being reminded of how LeBron James choked for the remainder of the hot summer months. What else do you think ESPN would talk about? Baseball? The talking heads would’ve run with it.  Skip Bayless would’ve gone into epileptic shock on air. The SportsCenter Center Pieces: “Can LeBron rebound from championship loss next year?”  “Are the Heat too old?” “Is LeBron the best regular-season player in the history of the game?”  Regular-season.  Those two words would have been tethered to the King like a lead ball and chain. The invisible asterisk hanging over LeBron’s career. What could have been, some would wonder.  What should have been, others would demand.  What wasn’t, we would all remember. 


            Legacy? Definitely salvageable, but a 1-3 record in the Finals would have handicapped, if not crippled, the King’s pursuit of the “Best Player Ever” title. We would remember his 2012-13 season not as the pinnacle of James’ career, but yet another blemish and ammo for the argument that LeBron isn't clutch.  Doctor J, Oscar Robertson, and Wilt would have replaced Jordan, Russell, and Kareem in comparisons of LeBron James.  A player who dominated the league during his prime, but not the relentless competitor and professional winner that we associate with greatest to ever lace up. The 27-game winning streak?  A defining stamp of a team’s dominance impressed upon history reduced to a mere trivia question.  You can’t be in the “Best Team Ever” discussion if you weren’t even the best team of your respective season.  

            The drama would continue until a week before football season is almost close enough to talk about, which is when ESPN begins covering it.  If LeBron’s lucky, Aaron Hernandez kills a guy, which takes some of the spotlight away from him.  But not for long.  Dwight Howard gets traded to the Clippers and the analysts begin questioning whether or not the Heat can stack up Dwight in the post, and whether or not they can even make it to the Finals in the first place. The Heat would attempt to acquire players who will remedy their dearth of size.  They would sign a Joel Pryzbilla or a Nazr Muhammad. As the 2013-14 NBA season draws nearer the buzz surrounding the King’s window of opportunity grows louder. 

            Derrick Rose is healthy again.  Danny Granger is healthy again.  Russell Westbrook is healthy again.  A Kevin Love-Carlos Boozer/Jimmy Butler trade would send one of the league’s best power forwards to the Bulls.  The teams in the Eastern Conference are tailoring their teams around beating the Heat.  Wade is deteriorating. Bosh has deteriorated.  After another stellar regular season from LeBron, a matured Pacers teams would bounce the defending champs from the playoffs in the Conference Semis.  More disappointment.

Following the early exit, the King would contemplate his options as a free agent. A developed Kyrie Irving and a sophomore Nerlins Noel would entice James to return to his hometown Cavaliers where he begins his journey towards redemption.  Even though the team has talent, it would take James a season or two to really gel with his new teammates.  Wade and James, Dwight and Kobe, Melo and Amar’e*; history tells us that bringing together two superstars doesn’t produce a champion right away.

*I’m only including Amar’e because I’m not ready emotionally to handle the reality that the Knicks still owe him almost $50 million over the next two seasons.

In Cleveland, LeBron would win one, maybe two more championships as he fades out of his prime.  Best case scenario: he ends his career a three-time NBA Champion, three-time Finals MVP, five-time regular season MVP, and he regains the respect of the city of Cleveland.  Not six titles and six Finals MVP’s, but a sure-fire Hall of Fame career and a spot at the 10 Greatest Players Ever table.  LeBron would say that it didn’t matter.  That he doesn’t play for legacy and that he accomplished everything that he wanted to accomplish in his career, all of which would not doubt be true.  But he would always kick himself for the way he played down the stretch of Game 6, even if he’d never show it.

But none of that matters because none of it happened.  Chris Bosh got an offensive rebound, Ray Allen sunk a three with five seconds left to force an overtime, and David Stern’s henchmen wheeled the Larry O’Brien trophy back down the tunnel and stowed it away until Game 7. LeBron James should make a Helga from Hey Arnold! style bubble-gum shrine to Ray Allen for single-handedly keeping his run at Michael alive (with Bosh as Eugene breathing heavily into his ear). 

Three years from now, nobody will remember LeBron’s two late turnovers in Game 6.  We will only see a triple-double in the box score and a 2012-13 NBA Championship banner hanging in American Airlines Arena.  We will see a back-to-back NBA Champion (with a chance to become the first three-peat since Kobe/Shaq) and back-to-back NBA Finals MVP.  We will see the highest elimination game PPG in NBA history and the second most playoff triple-doubles ever.  We will see a player who still has a legitimate shot to make a run Michael.


Just know that years from now, when LeBron James retires and the analysts stack up his legacy against Michael’s, Ray Allen will be watching somewhere next to his mom who is no doubt still in her bedazzled Celtics jersey.  He’ll glance at his 2013 NBA Champion Ring, and he’ll know that even though it was LeBron who shepherded the Heat to the Finals, it was Allen who saved that season, and a substantial part LeBron’s legacy, with one of the most historically significant shots in NBA history. 


Shout-out to the bitter Celtics fan JBFink

#DJLR

Friday, January 4, 2013

New Years' MEGABLOG


Hey!  Welcome back!  Grab a seat and make yourself at home.  If you’re thirsty there’s water in the fridge and--- wait what?  There’s no water?  There’s no fridge either?  Wait there’s not even a chair?  Wow I’m really sorry, I just had my blog renovated so the furniture must still be in storage.  Well, anyway now that you’re here you might as well stay for the

NEW YEARS’ MEGABLOG


            What better way to ring in the New Year than with some good ol’-fashioned blog-on-blog-on-blog analysis of anything and everything? But first, as always, we need to go through the New Years’ Resolutions of some of our favorite sports icons from 2012.

Mark Sanchez: “Hi Santa! For Christmas I want a Calvin Johnson and a Larry Fitzgerald and a Super Bowl ring and ooo and a pony!  And--- Huh? What do you mean it isn’t Christmas anymore?  Then who’s lap am I sitting--- wait, Tebow!?!? You’re not Santa! NOOOO!!!!”

Andy Reid: “First and foremost, I promise to stop hiding snacks in my mustache. Seriously, it's a bad habit and this year I'll actually stick to my promise.  Second, I promise to stop coaching the team with the worst turnover differential in the NFC (Eagles: -24) so that I can coach the team with the worst turnover differential in the AFC (Chiefs: -24).  Finally, I promise to make every Chiefs fan regret this hire.”

Mike D’Antoni: “I promise to overuse Kobe during the regular season and make every Lakers fan regret not getting Phil Jackson when they had the chance.”

Chip Kelly: “I promise to leave Oregon to coach in the NFL before the sanctions hit."

Gary Bettman: “I promise to do everything in my power to make sure that the NHL lockout will continue and that 2012-2013 hockey season will be cancelled.  I also promise to keep the title of Worst Commissioner in Sports safe from the clutches of Roger Goodell.  Also I hate puppies.”


Wasn’t that heartwarming?  Don’t you just love it when people try to better themselves/perpetuate their shortcomings for the New Year?

            Now that we got that out of the way, let’s get down to business. A lot has happened since the last post so fasten your seatbelts because we’re going rapid-fire:


 JETS:

In perhaps the most predictable ending to a season since Friends, the Jets managed to not only to disappoint every one of their fans, but also embarrass themselves on a national stage.  Mark Sanchez was so terrible that even Trent Dilfer was allowed to criticize him, the defense was ranked 20th in points allowed, they were eliminated from the playoffs in Week 14, Tebow lined up as a wide receiver, and to celebrate the season Rex Ryan got an arm tattoo of his wife wearing a Mark Sanchez jersey.

Speaking of bad tattoos, here's your "Tattoo That Looked Better in My Head" of the month:


Back to business.  Basically the best part of the New Year for Jets fans is not having to suffer through another game until September.  The entire Jets season can be summed up in this play

The good news is that Jets management seems to be making the right moves to ameliorate the chaos.  They’re shopping Sanchez for whatever they can get (which is at most a couple of breadsticks), they fired GM Mike Tanenbaum, they’re looking to replace OC Tony Sparano with (possibly) Norv Turner, and they’re keeping Rex Ryan for another year.  I think keeping Rex is key because he's a good coach who was plagued by player injuries, weird and sometimes creepy mini-scandals, and devout loyalty to a quarterback who lost his job to Greg McElroy.  If the Jets can get a serviceable quarterback in the draft (Geno Smith?), revitalize their defense, and bag an upper echelon wide receiver (Dwayne Bowe/Mike Wallace?) the Jets could be a Wild Card contender.  But that’s a lot of ifs. 


GIANTS:

            Not quite as humiliating of a season as their hometown rival Jets, the Giants still managed to garner their fair share of embarrassment by squandering their playoff hopes after starting the season 6-2.  Many will point to injuries of Kenny Phillips, Justin Tuck, and Osi Umenyiora on the defensive side, which exacerbated an already exposed defense. This is true, but only half of the story.

            The other part of it is Eli Manning and the Giants’ offense.  Granted, Hakeem Nicks and Ahmad Bradshaw seemed perpetually on the injury report, but look at Eli’s numbers from the first half of the season compared to the second half.

First 8 games: 2,301 yards (>300 yards 3 times), 12 TD, 8 INT
Last 8 games: 1,647 yards (>300 yards 0 times), 14 TD, 7 INT

            Subtract the five-touchdown day that Eli had over the 4-12 Eagles in Week 17 when the Giants’ playoff chances were less likely than the chance that Kim and Kanye end up raising their baby together, and Eli only has nine touchdowns in the final eight games of the season.


            Eli’s turnovers were never the downfall for the Giants, but this year his lack of efficiency in the passing game was.  When Eli is moving the ball through the air that clears the box for Bradshaw/Brown/Wilson, giving the Giants a very formidable run/pass combination.  We saw sparks of it in the second half of the season (i.e. against the 49ers), but not enough for them to secure a playoff berth. 

            These numbers tell it all:

Eli in Giants wins (9 Games): 2,495 yards, 21 TD, 9 INT, 98.4 QB Rating
Eli in Giants losses (7 Games): 1, 453 yards, 5 TD, 6 INT, 72.2 QB Rating

At the end of the day, the Giants lived and died by Eli… and then died a little more from their 31st ranked defense.


DJANGO UNCHAINED:

            Django Unchained was off the chain.  In case you were wondering, yes, I made that up, and, no, it’s not the first time I used that joke.



THE CHRISTMAS VS CHANUKAH VS KWANZAA DEBATE

            I’m ending this debate once and for all.  I’m a Jew and even I have to admit that Christmas is, by far, the best holiday of the three.  First of all, nobody actually knows what Kwanzaa is, let alone celebrates it.  I looked it up and saw a menorah thing and what looks like yamakas, so I can only assume that it’s Chanukah for black people. 

That being said, in regards to Chanukah vs. Christmas, it’s not even a contest.  People who argue for Chanukah say, “You get presents for eight nights!!! [pause and wait for reaction] EIGHT NIGHTS!!!!”  What non-Jews don’t realize is that getting presents for eight nights fucking sucks.  You don’t get any more presents than you normally would; you just get all of your presents spaced out evenly for eight nights.  Most times you don’t even get eight presents, so you go dry for a couple of the nights. 

Also, since the Jewish calendar is different from the regular calendar, Chanukah’s eight days are different every year.  Nobody except for the rabbi actually knows when Chanukah is until it actually is Chanukah, which ruins all of the fun of anticipating when you get your presents.

Finally, “Merry Christmas” sounds so much better than “Happy Chanukah,” and a Christmas Tree is infinitely better than a Chanukah Bush.  Everybody knows that a tree is just a better, taller version of a bush, and furthermore a Chunukah Bush sounds like some sort of creepy residue left over from No-Shave November. 


KNICKS:

            I could’ve done an entire post about the Knicks and why I’m fatally in love with them, but it would go on for days, so I’ll just limit it to a couple of paragraphs.

            I love that Melo has finally come on.  I know it sounds sadistic, but I think it was a good thing that Amar’e was injured to start the season.  It gave Melo time to establish that he is the number one guy on the team and that when Amar’e comes back it has to be in a complementary role.  I think the Knicks’ success in Amar’e’s absence has convinced Amar’e of this, which bodes well for both Amar’e’s future health and the Knicks’ depth if they can have both J.R. and Stat healthy coming off of the bench.

            I also love 2K13’s Mr. Potato Head a.k.a. Mike Woodson.  He’s finally gotten everyone to buy into his system and it shows.  He has a great mind for defense and has handled big personalities well thus far.  He's a much better overall coach than  D’Antoni and the Lakers are starting to see why Run-and-Gun Mike was forced to “retire” mid-season as coach of the Knicks.

            What's more the Knicks point guard play with the rotation of Jason Kidd, Raymond Felton, and Pablo Prigioni is one of the best in the league.  Kidd is a natural leader like Tyson, Felton looks thin and much better than he was two years ago, and how could you not love the little Argentinian/Italian thing that Prigioni does?  Also, J.R. Smith has shattered the record for most shots where everybody watching him goes “NO, NO, NO, NO, NO, NO, NO- YES!!!!!”

            What makes me nervous though isn’t the record setting pace of three point attempts (which Charles Barkley think is “just turrrible”), but rather the Knicks low post game.  They’re currently being outrebounded by their opponents 1278 to 1376, a differential of about 100.  The Knicks are also ranked 27th in rebounds per game and 22nd in opponents’ rebounds per game.  This lack of a dominant inside presence was put on national display on Christmas Day when the Lakers absolutely dominated the Knicks down low, outscoring them 46-26 in the paint. 

            The Knicks can survive, and even thrive, when playing small ball teams like the Heat, but if and when the Lakers ever figure it out, the Knicks are going to be in a lot of trouble trying to mark up against Dwight Howard. Hopefully this will change with a healthy Amar'e in the lineup.

            With that being said, a realistic goal for the Knicks should be Eastern Conference Finals, as Carmelo said earlier in the year.  A championship is the ultimate goal though, but that comes later down the road as experience builds. 


BCS NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP

            My one-of-a-kind matchup is available courtesy of Yahoo! Sports:


            (Shameless self-promotion at its finest)

Here’s a little more shameless self-promotion for you, happy holidays:

#DJLR